Is this point-in-time safe?

Yes. Every signal uses only information available at the time, and the allocation it produces is applied to the following month — so there's no hindsight bias.

Does it account for trading costs?

Not yet — like the other tools, results are gross of taxes, spreads, and commissions. The trade count and turnover stats help you gauge how costly a strategy would be to run.

Tactical Allocation

Test rules-based strategies that move between assets and a safe haven based on price signals — moving-average timing, relative and dual momentum, and volatility targeting. Every signal uses only past data, so results are point-in-time safe (no look-ahead).

Educational use only — not investment advice

This tool is for educational and informational purposes only and does not provide financial, investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Results are hypothetical and based on historical data and assumptions that may be inaccurate. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.

Tactical AllocationAdvanced

What is the Tactical Allocation?

Test moving-average timing, relative and dual momentum, and volatility targeting against buy & hold — with a full allocation timeline.

Tactical allocation moves between risky assets and a safe haven based on rules rather than a fixed mix. This tool backtests four classic, rules-based strategies — moving-average timing, relative momentum, dual momentum, and volatility targeting — and compares each to simply buying and holding. Every signal is computed only from past data, so the results are point-in-time safe with no look-ahead bias, and an allocation timeline shows exactly what the strategy held and when.

How to use it

1Define your risky universe of tickers and a safe 'out-of-market' asset (such as cash or short-term Treasuries).
2Pick a strategy — moving-average timing, relative or dual momentum, or volatility targeting — set its parameters and a date range, and add an initial (and optional recurring) investment.
3Run it to compare the strategy against buy & hold, with an allocation timeline showing exactly what it held and when, plus trade-count and time-in-market stats.

What you'll get

✓Strategy vs. buy & hold metrics (CAGR, volatility, max drawdown, Sharpe)
✓Beta and alpha of the strategy vs. buy & hold
✓Growth and drawdown charts
✓Allocation timeline (what was held each month)
✓Trade count, turnover, and time-in-market stats

New here? See it in action

Dual momentum: US, international & EM — Rotate among US, developed, and emerging-market stocks, retreating to cash when none beat T-bills — the classic dual-momentum approach.

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Strategy

Hold the top-N by trailing return, but only if they also beat the safe asset (absolute momentum); else retreat to safety.

Risky universe

Safe / out-of-market asset

Where capital goes when out of the market (e.g. BIL cash, BND bonds, SHY short Treasuries).

Start date

End date

Lookback (months)

Assets to hold

Reinvest dividends

Initial investment (USD)

Recurring cash flow

Point-in-time safe · signals use only past data

How the Tactical Allocation works

Signals are evaluated at each month-end using only data up to that point, then the resulting allocation earns the next month's return — there is no look-ahead. Moving-average timing holds each asset only while it's above its N-month average; momentum models rank by trailing return; volatility targeting scales exposure to a target risk level.