Stress Test & Scenario Analysis
Averages hide the scary moments. This tool shows them directly. First it replays your portfolio through real crashes — 2008, the 2020 COVID plunge, the 2022 bear market and more — so you can see the loss you'd have lived through versus the S&P 500. Then it runs "what-if" shocks: tell it stocks drop and interest rates rise, and it estimates the immediate hit, using each holding's measured sensitivity to the stock market and to rates. The goal is simple: know your bad days before they happen.
Educational use only — not investment advice
This tool is for educational and informational purposes only and does not provide financial, investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Results are hypothetical and based on historical data and assumptions that may be inaccurate. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
What is the Stress Test / Scenarios?
See exactly how much your portfolio would have dropped in real historical crises, then test 'what-if' shocks — a market crash and a jump in interest rates — using each holding's measured sensitivity.
Averages hide the moments that scare investors out of the market. The Stress Test tool shows the bad days directly. First, it replays your portfolio through real crises — the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 COVID crash, the 2022 bear market and more — using actual daily prices, so you can see the drop you'd have lived through versus the S&P 500. Second, it runs forward-looking 'what-if' shocks: tell it stocks fall 30% and interest rates rise 2%, and it estimates the immediate hit to your portfolio. It does this by measuring, from history, how sensitive each holding is to the stock market (its 'equity beta') and to interest rates (its 'rate beta'), so bond-heavy and stock-heavy portfolios react realistically and differently.
How to use it
- 1Enter your portfolio's tickers and weights.
- 2Set a hypothetical equity shock (e.g. stocks −30%) and an interest-rate shock (e.g. +2%), and the history window used to measure each holding's sensitivity.
- 3Run it to replay real crises (2008, 2020, 2022) on your portfolio and estimate the immediate hit from your what-if shock — broken down by how much comes from stocks vs. rates.
What you'll get
- ✓Your portfolio's return and worst drop in each historical crisis vs. the S&P 500 (SPY proxy)
- ✓Estimated portfolio impact from the combined equity + rate shock
- ✓How much of the hit comes from stocks vs. rates
- ✓Each holding's equity beta and rate beta, and its contribution to the loss
- ✓A plain-English interpretation of where your risk is concentrated
↓ Or build your own below
e.g. −30 means a 30% market drop
+2 means rates rise 2 percentage points
How the Stress Test / Scenarios works
Crisis replay applies your starting weights to actual split-adjusted daily prices over each crisis window (buy-and-hold) and measures the total return and maximum drawdown, compared with SPY. Holdings without data for a given window are flagged and the rest renormalized. For the shocks, each holding's monthly returns are regressed on two factors — the S&P 500's return and the monthly change in the 10-year Treasury yield — giving an equity beta and a rate beta. The shock you enter is multiplied through those betas and your weights to estimate the portfolio's move. Sensitivities are statistical estimates from the past, not guarantees.